Soybean futures edged higher on Tuesday and make fresh contract high to close at 3,818 rupees per 100 kg due to improving demand in the physical market coupled with expectation of good crushing on reports of hike in import duty on palm oil. Earlier, it was trading under pressure due to widespread rains in Central India, sufficient supplies and lower demand for soymeal exports but increase suddenly on jump in edible oil prices. Government increase MSP price by 9% or 311 rupees to 3,710 per 100 kg for 2019/20 which also helps to increase acreage this year.
As per farm ministry, acreage under soybean is 112.5 lakh ha so far, up from last year acreage of 111.5 lakh ha. Area in MP improved so as in Maharashtra. As per SOPA, the arrivals of soybean this season is 94.25 lt compared to 80 lt last year. Soy meal exports provisionally down by 59% in July to 26,000 tonnes compared to last year. Similarly, exports in first 4-months of FY 2019/20 (Apr-Jul) are down by about 41.5% to 1.83 lt compared to 3 lt last year. In the 4th advance estimates, government increased production forecast of soybean to 137.83 lt vs 137.43 lt in 3rd estimate. USDA kept soybean output forecast unchanged at 109 lt in 2019/20 but down 5.2% y/y.
CBOT soybean fell on Tuesday tracking improving U.S. crop conditions and uncertainty over US-China trade war affecting soybean exports from the US. USDA, on Monday, increased its weekly good-to-excellent rating for the nation's soybean crop by 2% to 55%. That topped analysts' estimates for 54%.
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